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Showing posts from 2018

Be Careful About a Stubborn Attachment to Growth

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Rob Wiblin interviewed economist Tyler Cowen on the 80,000 hours podcast (“the show about the world’s most pressing problems and how you can use your career to solve them”) and as I would expect, it was a consistently stimulating conversation. Cowen presented on his new book, Stubborn Attachments , which argues that we should place dramatic importance on economic growth because most of humanity’s expected value lies in the future, and economic growth is the most reliable help we can offer future generations. I think the thesis is largely correct, and I'm glad he's making such a strong case for creating an economically prosperous future. I want to contend, though, that growth as conventionally measured does not always do justice to the sort of growth that matters for the long-term future. Cowen makes a good case for providing future generations with as many resources as possible, but economic growth is a systematically imperfect measure of resources. In particular, it's n

Should Effective Charities Prepare for a Recession?

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Source: https://peoplespostng.com/news/when-churches-become-fetish-ritual-dens/ I asked a number of people at effective altruism global in June a question that came to my mind: how would a recession affect charities aligned with effective altruism? A lot of people seemed to me to have concerns, and many people I talked to seemed to think their organizations did not have a plan for if a recession hits and donations decrease. I think that’s a problem worth some thought. The effective altruism movement has now been booming for several years, with many EA-aligned animal organizations multiplying in size and achieving a cascade of long-sought cage-free pledges. EA-oriented meta organizations and those working on the long-term future of humanity have gained significantly more esteem. Evidence-based global development organizations have continued to be dominant in that sphere, even though they are increasingly less connected to self-described EA organizations. There is unmistakable

What I Learned from a Year Spent Studying How to Get Policymakers to Use Evidence

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Source: http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/on-evidence/ The past year I was a senior research analyst at Northwestern University's Global Poverty Research Lab on a study of evidence-based policy. Specifically, our goal was to work on a question often on researchers' minds: how can I get my ideas acted upon? To do this, I dug through a number of bodies of evidence on how science influences policy. One area I looked at is what is called "implementation science" in medicine, which looks at how to get doctors, nurses, and hospital administrators to adopt evidence-based practice. Another was a series of papers by social scientist Carol Weiss and her students on how policymakers in government agencies claim to use evidence. There is also a small literature on how to implement evidence-based policy in public schools, and a little work on policymaker numeracy. I've included a bibliography below that should be helpful for anyone interested in this topic. Most of my yea

I'm Not Running a Marathon Because #YOLO

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A few months ago, I posted on my Facebook wall that I was considering running a marathon and asked for advice. I'd started training low-key in October for no particular reason. I've been a runner since I was eleven or twelve, and one day after going for a slightly longer run than normal, my fiancé Lucas and I talked about how cool it would be if I ran a marathon, so I decided I'd give it a try. Then one day, again for no particular reason, I researched the health effects of running a marathon. I expected to find that it was positive, at least mildly. Instead what I found were articles upon articles  pooh-poohing marathons as unhealthy wastes of time. Now as much as I appreciate science writers for spreading important findings, I also know they frequently get things wrong. So I searched Google Scholar, and I found roughly the same thing.  I'd decided to do the marathon for no particular reason except that it would be an achievable accomplishment with presumably on

Cheers for Animal Charity Evaluators

Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) released a long-overdue report on protest effectiveness . I'm biased because I'm quoted there, but I thought I would take the occasion to note how much I think ACE has grown in the past few years. I'm tremendously grateful to ACE's founders, but when ACE started out (as "Effective Animal Advocacy"), its advice was rudimentary, based on little science, and made by a very small staff. I'm struck by the careful and nuanced conclusion the report reaches: Overall, we would like to see the animal advocacy movement invest slightly more heavily in protests. Protests currently receive a tiny portion of the movement’s resources and, given the limited evidence we do have, it’s plausible they are at least as cost-effective as interventions that receive much more of the movement’s resources, such as leafleting . Moreover, we think that the use of protests contributes to the diversity of tactics in the movement, which can help attrac

Rewatching West Side Story: Four Things I Noticed

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I watched West Side Story this weekend for the first time in years, and I'd really forgotten what a gem it is. I'd always liked the movie, but I'd mostly seen it as a top-notch adaptation of an already excellent musical and not a unique work of art in its own right. In this viewing, I realized what a special piece it is, and there were four things that stuck out to me: 1) Visual Storytelling It seems paradoxical, but musicals can in some way rely more on visuals to tell their stories than non-musicals can. Because music exists on its own, untethered from specific visuals, musical sequences in some ways resemble silent film more than sound film. I was struck by the use of gestures, dance, and camera techniques to tell a story without dialogue, particularly in the opening sequence. 2) The Interplay of Camera and Dance Cinematography and choreography are challenging art forms; combining them is even more difficult. I was struck by how the camera deftly moves w

What I've Been Reading/Watching/Listening to:

Audiobooks: Jane Eyre —Regarded as one of the first psychological novels, it follows a young woman's journey through 18th century England. I find it remarkably similar to Wuthering Heights  by Brontë's sister and also found antecedents of parts of recent works ( Harry Potter and Beauty and The Beast ). The Bhagavad Gita— I've been meaning to read the great works of the world's most common religions. The Bhagavad Gita is captivating in its beauty and wisdom. From my lay understanding, it seems to anticipate a lot of modern ideas in psychology and physics. TV: How to Get Away with Murder —I love this show. How had I not seen it yet? The plot is salacious, and the characters pop off the screen.  Film: Love, Simon —Finally a gay movie with a happy ending. I had hoped Call Me By Your Name  would be it, but it wanted an Oscar. I hope there will be many more light, good-but-not-great movies like this. The General —I'm trying to work through some of the top film di

The Largest Randomized Controlled Trial in History

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The list of authors alone is inspiring. Chinese researchers released what appears to be the largest experiment in history , with over a thousand researchers involved. The authors list alone is dumbfounding. The study is on the diffusion of modern scientific agricultural techniques in China. There is so much to ponder here that I can barely get started, but a few things: (1) This shows an inspiring, awesomely grand application of the most rigorous social science tool and should expand the horizons of what's possible. (2) This shows the growing power of China in combination with social science. I don't quite understand how this worked, but it seems like the type of thing that has got to be far more difficult in a democracy. That makes it somewhat disturbing, but it also raises the question of what interesting findings will come out of China. (3) This study might worry those concerned about animal agriculture. It's not directly connected, but such efficiency when ap

Why Can't Steven Pinker and AI Safety Altruists Get Along?

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There are few bo oks that have more influenced to my thinking than Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature . The book makes a powerful case for effective altruism by showing that much of what effective altruists try to spread—reason and empathy, chiefly—has led to a sweeping decline in virtually every form of human violence over the course of human history. At the same time, I think that Pinker's thesis and evidence in that book are compatible with an understanding that tail risks to human civilization, such as catastrophic risks, may have increased, and animal suffering, has clearly increased in recent history. (Humans' moral views on the latter do clearly seem to be improving , thoug h.)  I've found it puzzling, then, that to coincide with the publication of his book Enlightenment Now , Pinker has been publishing multiple articles criticizing altruists who are focused on addressing long-term risks, primarily from artificial general intelligence. Pinker

The Groffscars ("Oscars") of 2017

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Thanks to the  advent of MoviePass , I've decided to return to my high school cinephile days, and with them, a round up of the best of the year. But before I get into this, I must say, if you have not seen Black Panther yet, see it. It would rank toward the top of my list had it come out in 2017 (an d surely will be one of the tops in 2018). Without further ado, then, here are my top choices for 2017 in film: 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi I love Star Wars  movies, and I'm not ashamed to say that the current round are worthy of recognition for their craftsmanship. This one in particular was a work of art in ways most Star Wars  movies are not. The plot was complex and ever-changing, and the visuals were brilliant. I'm happy to see major Hollywood franchises– Marvel , Star Wars , etc.–start putting solid directors behind the camera to make pop entertainment into pop art. (Warner Brothers, could we fire Zack Snyder and get a real director for the Justice League movies?) 

Fooling Ourselves into Believing Things

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A New York Times piece I'd had in my backlog writes about an issue most atheists struggle to understand: how does one come to believe something one does not believe? Can we make ourselves have faith? I was struck by the piece because as time has gone on, I've seen how real this phenomenon can be–and how it may even be something useful to rational people. I've experienced moments when I've thought of getting myself to believe something I did not believe or feel something I did not feel. Most saliently, as with most gay men, I tried to be straight. I took it a step further in college and did a program called the Vaad , which attempted to turn Yale students into Orthodox Jews. They were damn good at it, too, full of references to the surprisingly difficult fine-tuned universe argument and Kurt Vonnegut. Some people in the program did go on to go to Israel, study at Yeshiva, and so on, and from what I hear there are many others like that.  And of course, in some way

Data and Racism in Machine Learning?

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We often hear stories these days about racism in machine learning algorithms. The subtlety in these stories is often missing. I've been reading about this recently and found this quote very telling: A wave of scholarship, triggered by the ProPublica report , illuminated the statistical challenge at the heart of the argument: Given that the underlying “base rate” of rearrest is higher for blacks than for whites, it is mathematically inevitable that the burden of false positives will fall more heavily on black defendants than on white ones. In other words, given that more black defendants than white defendants actually do have a high risk of reoffending, a “high risk” label that is correct 70% of the time for both white and black defendants will still mis-label more black than white defendants as high risk. A study titled “Inherent Tradeoffs in the Fair Determination of Risk Scores” proved mathematically that when rearrest rates are not equal between races, a well-calibrated tool

The Humane Society and Sexual Harassment: Resources to Read

I thought of writing something myself in light of recent events at the Humane Society , which are reflective of deeper issues in the animal rights movement (ones that I have alternately witnessed, been a bystander to, tacitly facilitated, or spoken out against). Instead, I'm going to recommend women's writing on this subject: “Hey Man”: Language and Bro Culture in the Animal Protection Movement Carol Adams's Blog (Author of The Sexual Politics of Meat )  VINE Sanctuary/pattrice jones's Blog Encompass Movement I should say, also, that I'm proud to support an entirely female or trans organization, Wild Animal Suffering Research .

Is a Computer Neuron the Same as a Brain Neuron?

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When I took a philosophy of mind class in high school, my professor proposed neural networks in computer science as a potential way to create consciousness. At the very least, it's a way to create high levels of intelligence. I didn't know exactly what a computerized neural network consisted of (I imagined it being built in hardware), and I still don't, really, but I'm curious: how similar is an artificial neural network to a biological one? Is it really a good replication? From an article on the similarities and differences :  An [Artificial Neural Network] consists of layers made up of interconnected neurons that receive a set of inputs and a set of weights. It then does some mathematical manipulation and outputs the results as a set of “activations” that are similar to synapses in biological neurons. While ANNs typically consist of hundreds to maybe thousands of neurons, the biological neural network of the human brain consists of billions. On the other han

The Beauty of Swimming Next to Fishes

It's not often most humans encounter aquatic animals face to face (unlike domestic animals, and somewhat unlike even pigs or chickens). If we do encounter them, it's likely at the end of a fork. Seeing fishes, sharks, and a lobster face-to-face was probably the highlight of my recent trip to Belize. You can appreciate their subjectivity in a way that's rare otherwise. Here's a video so you can experience a bit of that, too:

What I've Been Reading/Watching/Listening To

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Here are some recent things I've been following and would recommend: Books: 1984 – It had been a while since I read this. In light of my experiences last year–the personal and the political–I dusted this off, and I am newly impressed by Orwell's world. Infinite Jest – Apparently one of the best novels of the 21st century, this book has been enjoyable to read so far (I'm about half-way through). It's the first book I've read in a while that's an intellectual puzzle with obscure references and a counter-intuitive structure that one has to piece together. Superforecasting – Social scientist Philip Tetlock discusses his forecasting tournaments, which set out to figure out how to predict the future–and do just that. It's both fascinating and important. Films: Call Me By Your Name – I loved this movie. From the music to the photography to the actors' playful banter, it's a beauty to behold. Star Wars: The Last Jedi – You've all seen this by now so

An Engagement Good for More Than Two

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Photo by Hannah Kaminsky   Last weekend marked six months since my fiancé, Lucas Freitas, and I got engaged, and I thought it would be helpful for us to share how we (he, really) did it while keeping the event aligned with our shared values of altruism and rationality. Lucas proposed to me in the conference hotel where we'd first met in person, just one year prior. We met at the National Animal Rights Conference in 2016, and he got down on one knee at the same tent by the pool where we'd had our first kiss. When he offered me a beautiful ring, designed as the prairie diamond I'd gotten him when we were first dating, I was surprised and uneasy about the ring, and its potential cost, after saying yes while drowning in tears. Jewelry had always seemed to me the essence of frivolity; the sort of expense one can commit to a charitable donation. What I didn’t realize was that Lucas researched and thought critically about the matter, and arrived at a middle ground that I beli