Do Trump rallies spread COVID-19?

It looks like the answer is yes.

It's been a while, but I'm back, and with a new paper with Doug Bernheim, Nina Buchmann, and Seba Otero:

We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).

Update:  Here is an event study graph shared by my co-author:


  1. You're a lying sack of shit liberal little snowflake pussy faggot. Glad you faggots put your name on this faggoty shitrag article. Bunch of lying sacks of shit. Focused all that energy on a fucking "trump rally" study for covid. What a disgusting, political ploy you slanted faggots. Keep being gay.

  2. Who's decision was it to go forward with publishing this article 'Do Trump rallies spread COVID-19?'

  3. Feel free to respond to me at

  4. Did you do any contact tracing? Nope. All you found was a correlation, not causation. But who could expect more from an Economics major in a study of communicable diseases? No agenda there, was there? Sadly, a lot of ignorant people will believe the headlines.
    BTW, did you even consider a similar study on the street protests? Where are those correlations?
    Bad science, my friend. Pure narrative. You should be ashamed.

  5. Really? You should admit what you did is write a non-peer reviewed hit piece in order to effect the outcome of an election. You're just a student and may have destroyed your career. Your vanity is showing.


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